Statistical Programs |
College of Agriculture | University of Idaho |
Seminar Announcement |
"Applied Statistics in Agriculture" |
Development of Wild Oat Seed
Dispersal Distributions Using an Individual-plant
Growth Simulation Model
Presented By |
Dr. William J. Price |
Statistical Programs College of Agriculture University of Idaho |
Tuesday, Feburary 8 3:30 P. M. Ag. Science 323 |
An individual-plant growth simulation model for quantifying competition between spring barley and wild oat has been previously described (Price, Shafii, and Thill, 1994). Individual plants within a population were modeled independently and competition between plants was determined by resource demand within plant specific areas-of- influence. Calibration of the model to spring barley and wild oat biomass data was performed and shown to have a high degree of accuracy under monoculture conditions. The work presented here applies the specified model to a larger scale simulation for the purpose of demonstrating seed dispersal in wild oat. This is accomplished by breaking the annual cycle of wild oat seeds into the three integrated phases: Growth and development, dissemination, and dormancy. The growth and development phase is handled using the individual-plant growth model. The subsequent dispersal of seeds is described using two-dimensional stochastic processes. Finally, a life table analysis, based on predetermined transition probabilities, is used to establish the makeup of populations in the following season. A sensitivity analysis which examines various biological, ecological, and mechanical model components over a ten-year period is carried out and the potential use in weed science education is demonstrated. |
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