Stat 251: Statistical Methods
Fall 2015, University of Idaho, Section 03, CRN 13791
Instructor: Brian Dennis
Professor, Department of Statistical Science
316 Phinney,
208-885-7423, brian@uidaho.edu
Office hours: 1:30 PM - 2:20 PM
Mon, Tues, Wed, Thur. (or by appointment)
Teaching Assistant: Amanda Bowe, abowe@uidaho.edu
TA office hours: at the SAC (2nd floor library), 9:30AM -
11:30AM, Mon, Wed, Fri;
1:30PM - 3:00PM, Tues.
Meeting times & places:
Lecture: MWF 11:30AM - 12:20PM AG SCI 106
Textbooks (required):
Diez, D. M., C. D. Barr, and M. Çetinkaya-Rundel. 2015. OpenIntro Statistics, third edition. An open source online textbook.
Download a pdf file of the book FREE here or here. An optional paper copy may be purchased if desired
for around $10.00 here (and read the reviews of the second edition here!).
This book is abbreviated OIS in reading schedule below.
Tables from the book: Normal distribution Student's t distribution Chi-square distribution
(Bring these tables to quizzes/tests)
Dennis, B. 2013. The R Student Companion. CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, USA.
Available at UI Bookstore, or here, or here (ebook editions available too). Read reviews here.
Abbreviated RSC in reading schedule below.
Computing:
The amazing, free R language for statistics, graphics, and computing
Online R servers: Here. Here. Here. (These can be used by tablets and smart phones)
Online
videos, tutorials, courses about R
Why. No. One. Should. Use. Excel for statistical computing or graphics
Other materials:
You should bring a scientific calculator (w/ memory, square root, logarithms) to quizzes.
Other resources:
Stat Assistance Center
(SAC): now on *second* floor
Library, for help with this course
SAC hours: Monday-Thursday: 9-5, Friday: 9-3. Phone: 885-2929.
Statistics Consulting Center (SCC): Call 885-2929 for an appointment, for statistics advice concerning research or thesis
Online free intro statistics courses
Coursera intro statistics course (video lectures; course starts Sep 14 2015)
Khan
Academy intro statistics course
(video lectures; on all the time)
Grades are
based on 400 total points:
Quizzes. 8 quizzes, 25 points each.
Protocol: one 8.5 X 11 inch cheat sheet, calculator, pencils, 30
minutes.
Final exam: 100 points, mostly comprehensive. Protocol:
one 8.5 X 11 inch cheat sheet,
calculator, pencils, 2 hours.
Computer-aided
assignments. 2 take-home data analysis assignments, 50
points each.
Exercises are
assigned, but not graded. Quiz &
exam questions are based in part on exercises.
Data sets:
Grey fox in West Virginia ( population growth equation )
Foraminiferans (pre and post KT boundary)
Rectangles (mean area estimated by nonrandom and random sampling)
R scripts:
Boxplots
for Formaniferan data
for Rectangle data
Law of large numbers simulation
Batting average simulation (binomial distribution)
Normal approximation to the binomial (graph)
One mean, CI & test (t distribution)
Paired observations, CI & test (t distribution)
Two means, large samples, CI & test (normal distribution)
Two means, small samples, CI & Test (t distribution)
One proportion, large sample, CI & test (normal distribution)
Two proportions, large samples, CI & test (normal distribution)
Goodness-of-fit test (multinomial model, Pearson chi-square test)
Homogeneity of proportions test, using r X c table (multiple multinomial models, Pearson chi-square test)
Test of independence of categorical variables, using r X c table (single multinomial model, Pearson chi-square test)
Test of independence of categorical variables (or test of homogeneity of proportions),
using raw data (multinomial model, Pearson chi-square test)
Makeup quizzes: Makeup quizzes will not be given, except for legitimate scheduled university activities or grave, urgent reasons. Prior arrangements with instructor are required.
|
Topics &
readings (might change!): read the assigned material before class. |
||
|
Aug 24 Course introduction |
Aug 26 RSC Ch 1 Getting started with R |
Aug 28 RSC Ch 2 R scripts |
|
Aug 31 RSC Ch 3 Functions |
Sep 2 RSC Ch 4 Basic graphs |
Sep 4 RSC Ch 4 More graphs quiz 1 |
|
Sep 7 no class: Labor Day university closed |
Sep 9 OIS Ch 1.1-1.3 Basics of data |
Sep 11 OIS Ch 1.4-1.5 Collecting data |
|
Sep 14 RSC Ch 5 Data input and output |
Sep 16 RSC Ch 13 OIS Ch 1.6 Examining numerical data |
Sep 18 RSC Ch 13 OIS Ch 1.6 Examining numerical data (continued) quiz 2 |
|
Sep 21 OIS Ch 1.7 RSC Ch 6 Examining categorical data |
Sep 23 OIS Ch 2.1 RSC Ch 6 Defining probability |
Sep 25 OIS Ch 2.2 RIS Ch 7 Defining probability |
|
Sep 28 OIS Ch 2.2 RIS Ch 7 Conditional probability |
Sep 30 OIS Ch 2.4 Random variables |
Oct 2 OIS Ch 2.4 Random variables (continued) quiz 3 |
|
Oct 5 OIS 2.5 Continuous distributions |
Oct 7 OIS 3.1 Normal distribution |
Oct 9 OIS 3.1 Normal distribution (continued) |
|
Oct 12 OIS 3.2 Evaluating normality quiz 4 |
Oct 14 OIS Ch 3.2 Evaluating normality (continued) |
Oct 16
OIS Ch 3.4
Binomial distribution
|
|
Oct 19 OIS 3.4 Binomial distribution (continued) |
Oct 21 OIS Ch 4.1 Inference from a sample to a population quiz 5 |
Oct 23 OIS Ch 4.1 Inference (continued) |
|
Oct 26 OIC Ch 4.2 Confidence intervals |
Oct 28 OIS Ch
4.3 |
Oct 30 OIS Ch 4.3 Hypothesis testing (continued) |
|
Nov 2 OIS Ch 4.4 Central limit theorem quiz
6 |
Nov 4 OIS Ch 5.1 Inferences for a mean: 1-sample. |
Nov 6 OIS Ch 5.2 Paired data |
|
Nov 9 OIS Ch 5.3 Difference of two means |
Nov 11 OIS Ch 5.3 Difference of two means (continued) |
Nov 13 OIS Ch 5.5 Comparing many means |
|
Nov 16 OIS Ch 5.5 Comparing many means (continued) quiz 7 |
Nov 18 OIS 6.1 Inference for a proportion |
Nov 20 OIS 6.2 Difference of two proportions |
Fall Break!
|
Nov 30 OIS Ch 6.3 Goodness of fit |
Dec 2 OIS Ch 6.4 Testing for Independence of categorical variables |
Dec 4 OIS Ch 7.1 Linear regression quiz
8 |
|
Dec 7 OIS 7.2, 7.3 Linear regression (continued) |
Dec 9 OIS Ch 7.4 Linear regression (continued) |
Dec 11 OIS Ch 7.4 Linear regression (continued) |
|
Final exam occurs in the scheduled final exam period, 12:30-2:30PM, Tuesday, Dec 15. |
||
Learning objectives:
The student will learn to apply basic statistical methods including design of statistical studies, basic sampling methods, descriptive statistics, probability and sampling distributions; inference in surveys and experiments, regression, and analysis of variance.
And now, a few words about firearms:
The University of Idaho bans firearms from its property with only limited exceptions. One exception applies to persons who hold a valid Idaho enhanced concealed carry license, provided those firearms remain concealed at all times. If an enhanced concealed carry license holder’s firearm is displayed, other than in necessary self-defense, it is a violation of University policy. Please contact local law enforcement (call 911) to report firearms on University property.
Items for further interest and enjoyment
Statistics-related links and resources
Dallal’s essay on why significance level is 5%
Brian’s essay on
Bayesian statistics
Aaron and Brian’s essay on statistics education for ecologists
US Department of Health and Human Services botches the definition of "statistical significance"
Scientists on medical & health practices (If it talks like a quack, and bills like a quack, it probably is a quack):
An acupuncture study Review of studies Discussion
Paranormal/supernatural phenomena:
Committee for Skeptical Inquiry
The Last Will and Testament of Philip
J. Klass
To UFOlogists
who publicly criticize me…or who even think unkind
thoughts about me in private,
I do hereby leave and bequeath THE
UFO CURSE: No matter how long you live, you will never know
any more about UFOs than you know today.
You will never know any more about what UFOs really
are, or where they come from. You will
never know any more about what the U.S. Government really
knows about UFOs than you know today. As
you lie on your own death-bed you will be as mystified
about UFOs as you are today. And you will
remember this curse.
— Philip J. Klass, prominent UFO skeptic, posted on a UFO discussion site shortly before his death
Scientists on evolution, intelligent design, biblical creation:
Dover trial transcripts (read what scientists and “cdesign proponentists” say under oath)
Department of Biological Sciences, Lehigh University
The continuing futile attacks by
evolution’s opponents reminds me of another legendary confrontation,
that between Arthur and the Black Knight
in the movie Monte Python and the Holy
Grail. The Black
Knight, like evolution’s challengers,
continues to fight even as each of his limbs is hacked off, one by
one.
The “no transitional fossils” argument and the “designed genes” model
have been cut clean off,
the courts have debunked the “ID is
science” claim, and the nonsense here about the edge of evolution
is quickly sliced to pieces by
well-established biochemistry. The
knights of ID may profess these blows
are “but a scratch” or “just a flesh
wound,” but the argument for design has no scientific leg to stand on.
— Sean B. Carroll, in a review (2007 Science 316:1427-1428), of Michael J. Behe’s book
The Edge of Evolution: The Search for the Limits of Darwinism.
National Science Teachers Association
Statisticians analyze USA elections:
Exit poll discrepancy analyses (2004 USA presidential election)
(How the 2004 election fraud was committed: A. B.)
Scientists on climate change research:
Spencer Weart’s history of global change research (plus many fine links)
LaTeX (science/math/tech typesetting) resources:
Comparing public, private, and charter schools with NAEP data:
NAEP/US Department of Education analysis
Education "Rhee-form" makes things worse
Postmodern comedy: which of the following articles is a (deliberate) parody?
A. Deconstructing
the evidence-based discourse in health sciences: truth, power and fascism
B. Transgressing
the boundaries: towards a transformative
hermeneutics of quantum gravity
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Facebook use predicts declines in subjective well-being in young adults
And of course, no statistics course website would be complete without:
Todd Snider "Statisticians Blues"