Stat/Math 452: Mathematical Statistics

(Engineering Outreach)

Fall 2023, University of Idaho, Section 10,

CRN 21325 (Stat) 21347 (Math)

Instructor: Brian Dennis
Professor Emeritus, Department of Mathematics and Statistical Science
208-596-3897, brian@uidaho.edu

Reprints of publications available.

Prerequisite:

Math/Stat 451 or equivalent calculus-based course in probability.

Textbook:
Samaniego, F. J.  2014.  Stochastic modeling and mathematical statistics: a text for statisticians and quantitative scientists.  CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.  Available at UI bookstore, or here, or here.

 

Scope:

The course will cover portions of Chapters 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11 and supplementary material provided by the instructor.  Click on "Schedule of Topics" below.

 

Other materials:
The R computer package, a free program for doing graphs, simulations, statistical analyses, and scientific calculations, can

be downloaded at http://www.r-project.org/ (Windows, Mac OS, or Linux/Unix).  It is available in all the UI student computing labs.

 

Links and resources for R

 

R scripts demonstrated in class

     binomial simulation

     law of large numbers simulation

     central limit theorem simulation

     ML Poisson simulation

     ML Poisson bootstrap

     negative binomial ML

     multinomial ML blood types

     multinomial mark recapture profile likelihood

     probability and density probability plots

 

Articles (optional) of further interest in math-stat

     Fisher 1922:  modern statistics is born (& a historical study here)

     Leemis & McQueston paper on distribution relationships

     Dennis et al 2019:  RIP AIC and hypothesis testing

 

Other resources:

Statistics Consulting Center (SCC):  Call 885-2929 for an appointment, for statistics advice concerning research or thesis

Grades:
Based on 500 possible points, 90% A, 80% B, and so on

Assignment 1 (target date:  Monday Oct 23 or after Test 2).

Assignment 2 (target date:  Wednesday Nov 29 or after Test 3).

All coursework must be completed by 3PM Friday December 15 (EO policy):  There are 41 video lectures to be studied in a 15-week course period.  Completed tests and assignments (handwritten or typed with equation software) should be returned as pdf or word (.docx, .doc) files.  Testing times in the schedule below are advisory:  avoid letting tests and assignments bunch up into the final part of the semester. 

Learning outcomes: Students completing this course will understand the theory of statistics sufficiently to solve most problems appearing in standard textbooks for this course.

 

Course evaluations:     Stat452     Math 452

 

 

Schedule of topics

 

 

 

 

 

 

Items for further interest and enjoyment

 

Statistics-related links and resources

 

Dallal’s essay on why significance level is 5%

 

Brian’s essay on Bayesian statistics

 

Aaron and Brian’s essay on statistics education for ecologists

 

 

US Department of Health and Human Services botches the definition of "statistical significance"

 

Scientists on medical & health practices (If it talks like a quack, and bills like a quack, it probably is a quack):

 

     Quack watch

 

     An acupuncture study   Review of studies   Discussion

 

     Science based medicine

 

Paranormal/supernatural phenomena:

 

     Committee for Skeptical Inquiry

 

            The Last Will and Testament of Philip J. Klass

To UFOlogists who publicly criticize me…or who even think unkind thoughts about me in private,

I do hereby leave and bequeath THE UFO CURSE: No matter how long you live, you will never know

any more about UFOs than you know today. You will never know any more about what UFOs really

are, or where they come from. You will never know any more about what the U.S. Government really

knows about UFOs than you know today. As you lie on your own death-bed you will be as mystified

about UFOs as you are today. And you will remember this curse.

 

            — Philip J. Klass, prominent UFO skeptic, posted on a UFO discussion site shortly before his death

 

     Bye-Bye, Psi

 

Scientists on evolution, intelligent design, biblical creation:

 

     Talk origins

 

     Panda’s thumb

 

     Pharyngula

 

     Why evolution is true

 

     Dover trial transcripts  (read what scientists and “cdesign proponentists” say under oath)

 

     Department of Biological Sciences, Lehigh University

 

The continuing futile attacks by evolution’s opponents reminds me of another legendary confrontation,

that between Arthur and the Black Knight in the movie Monte Python and the Holy Grail.  The Black

Knight, like evolution’s challengers, continues to fight even as each of his limbs is hacked off, one by

one.  The “no transitional fossils” argument and the “designed genes” model have been cut clean off,

the courts have debunked the “ID is science” claim, and the nonsense here about the edge of evolution

is quickly sliced to pieces by well-established biochemistry.  The knights of ID may profess these blows

are “but a scratch” or “just a flesh wound,” but the argument for design has no scientific leg to stand on.

 

    Sean B. Carroll, in a review (2007 Science 316:1427-1428), of Michael J. Behe’s book

The Edge of Evolution:  The Search for the Limits of Darwinism.

 

     National Science Teachers Association

 

Statisticians analyze USA elections:

 

     Exit poll discrepancy analyses (2004 USA presidential election)

 

     (How the 2004 election fraud was committed:  A. )

 

Scientists on climate change research:

 

     Spencer Weart’s history of global change research (plus many fine links)

 

     RealClimate

 

LaTeX (science/math/tech typesetting) resources:

 

     Introduction to LaTeX

 

Comparing public, private, and charter schools with NAEP data:

 

     Lubienski study

 

     another Lubienski study

 

     AFT report

 

     NAEP/US Department of Education analysis

 

     Education "Rhee-form" makes things worse

 

Postmodern comedy:  which of the following articles is a (deliberate) parody?

 

     A.  Deconstructing the evidence-based discourse in health sciences: truth, power and fascism

 

     B.  Transgressing the boundaries:  towards a transformative hermeneutics of quantum gravity

 

               Answer is here

 

Share this on Facebook:

 

     Facebook use predicts declines in subjective well-being in young adults

 

And of course, no statistics course website would be complete without:

 

     Todd Snider "Statisticians Blues"