| Statistical Programs |
| College of Agriculture | University of Idaho |
| Seminar Announcement |
| "Applied Statistics in Agriculture" |
|
Estimating the probability of bud break and the potential of frost damage in subalpine fir trees
Presented By |
| Dr. William J. Price |
|
Statistical Programs College of Agriculture University of Idaho |
|
Tuesday, March 6 3:30 P. M. Ag. Science 62 |
| Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa var. lasiocarpa) is commonly used for nursery stock and Christmas tree applications. Spring frost damage to new buds, however, can jeopardize the long-term investment of growers and reduce the quality of the resulting fir trees. Hence, it is important to evaluate the risk of frost damage when considering prospective growing sites. A prediction model for bud development based on heat units can be used in conjunction with historical climate data to assess the likelihood of frost damage. That is, given the probability of a frost event at a given location and time, and the corresponding probability of bud break at that time, the probability of frost damage can be estimated. Factors affecting estimation, such as multiple environments inherent in the data, as well as temporal variation, must also be considered. These issues will be explored using parametric, non-parametric, and computer intensive estimation techniques. Examples will be demonstrated using data collected from replicated bud break experiments conducted in northern Idaho. |
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