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Statistical Programs
College of Agriculture University of Idaho
Seminar Announcement
"Applied Statistics in Agriculture"
Estimation of Fish Disease Prevalence from Imperfect Diagnostic Tests

Presented By
Dr. Chris J. Williams

Division of Statistics
University of Idaho

Tuesday,February 10
3:30 P. M.
Ag. Science 62

      A Bayesian model is introduced for estimation of disease prevalence with imperfect diagnostic tests. A latent variable approach leads to an easy-to-implement Gibbs sampling scheme for sampling from the joint posterior distribution of prevalence and the sensitivity and specificity of the tests. These models have been widely adopted for use with human medical data, and we apply them here for prevalence estimation for diseases in fish from the northwest United States. In this setting where less information is available about sensitivity and specificity of tests, some interesting differences occur in the behavior of the Gibbs sampler and in the conclusions that result from the analyses.


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